Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
